Electricity bills climbed, rice stayed cheaper, and food costs eased, together keeping the Philippines’ inflation unchanged at 1.7% in October 2025, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). That marks the eighth straight month inflation stayed below the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target band of 2–4%, one of the calmest price stretches in recent years.
The stability hides contrasting movements. Price increases for housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels quickened to 2.7% from 2.1% in September, offset by slower gains in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which slipped to 0.5% from 1.0%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy components, inched down to 2.5% from 2.6%, showing that underlying demand pressures remain mild.
Housing and utilities again topped the inflation contributors, accounting for roughly a third of the total index. The PSA pointed to electricity and water as the main sources of the rise.
Meralco implemented a ₱0.2331 per kilowatt-hour increase in October, adding about ₱47 to a typical 200-kWh household bill. Water rates also moved slightly higher after regulators approved quarterly adjustments for Metro Manila concessionaires.
Despite costlier utilities, inflation overall barely moved because most consumer categories were steady. Transport rose only 0.9%, while health and recreation costs slowed from September levels.
Nationwide, food inflation slipped to 0.3% in October from 0.8% the month before. Vegetables and meat posted the steepest slowdowns. Price growth for vegetables, tubers, and pulses cooled to 16.6% from 19.4%, and meat eased to 5.2% from 6.0%.
Rice prices remained a bright spot. For the tenth consecutive month, rice inflation stayed negative at –17.0%, slightly deeper than September’s –16.9%. PSA data show regular-milled rice averaging ₱40.09 per kilo in October, more than 20% lower than a year earlier.
National Statistician Claire Dennis Mapa attributed the decline to strong domestic output during harvest season and easing world market prices. The temporary import suspension ordered by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., meant to protect farmers, has not strained supply as stocks remain sufficient.
Not all food categories softened. Inflation for fish and other seafood rose to 8.2%, and oils and fats climbed to 9.4%, reflecting the sensitivity of coastal and crop-based goods to weather disruptions.
Inflation in the National Capital Region (NCR) accelerated to 2.9% from 2.7% in September, driven mainly by higher housing and utility prices.
Outside Metro Manila, the picture reversed. Areas Outside NCR (AONCR) saw inflation ease to 1.3% from 1.5%. Eight of seventeen regions posted slower rates. Central Visayas remained the highest at 2.6%, while Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) recorded a 1.3% annual decline, the steepest drop nationwide.
The BSP said the October figure landed within its 1.4–2.2% forecast range and reaffirmed that inflation is on track to average below target this year. Its easing cycle, which has lowered policy rates by 175 basis points since August 2024, may extend if prices stay muted.
Analysts echo that outlook. HSBC Global Research and Chinabank Research both highlight that subdued inflation gives policymakers “space to support growth,” though they warn of possible upside from fuel price adjustments and erratic weather.
The Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) credited steady prices to coordinated supply-side actions, such as timing of agricultural imports and regulation of key utilities. Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said these measures “help maintain adequate supplies and keep essential goods affordable,” while the government advances longer-term plans in farm infrastructure, livestock competitiveness, and energy diversification.
Reading between the numbers
Inflation at 1.7% might appear uneventful, yet it reveals a layered picture:
- Energy costs are rising gradually and could spill over to other goods in the months ahead.
- Food prices remain stable but hinge on climate and logistics.
- Core inflation’s dip signals weak demand-side momentum.
- Regional gaps underline how local supply chains and weather events influence prices.
If utility costs climb faster while food stays subdued, the balance keeping inflation low could tilt. For now, the data describe an economy anchored by ample supply, tempered demand, and cautious policy — conditions that give consumers and markets room to breathe.
Understanding the Broader Context
Inflation in the Philippines reflects a constant balance between food supply conditions and energy costs. Food and non-alcoholic beverages make up about 38% of the consumer price index, so harvest outcomes, transport efficiency, and storage systems have an outsized effect on overall prices. Weather or logistics setbacks can change inflation’s direction even when household demand hardly moves.
Energy and utilities carry similar weight. Shifts in generation charges or global fuel prices filter quickly into local bills, since most of the country’s electricity still depends on imported fuel. Those global price cycles, often beyond domestic control, explain why inflation occasionally flares despite steady demand at home.
The PSA compiles monthly inflation using a nationwide Retail Price Survey anchored to the 2018 base year. Headline inflation captures all price changes, while core inflation removes volatile items such as food and fuel to show underlying trends. Analysts and researchers often use historical CPI data to estimate how prices evolve over time, a function also supported by computational tools that calculate peso purchasing power across periods.
The BSP keeps its policy focus within a 2–4% target range to preserve both price stability and growth. When readings drop below that band, monetary easing becomes possible; when they exceed it, tightening follows. Still, because many Philippine price shocks originate on the supply side, rate adjustments alone rarely resolve them.
That’s why fiscal agencies step in with supply-side measures such as import timing, tariff calibration, buffer-stock use, and energy oversight to complement monetary policy. The coordination between these efforts largely determines how fast inflationary pressures fade.
Persistent influences remain:
- Weather variability disrupting crop cycles and distribution
- Global energy volatility tied to geopolitics
- Currency swings affecting import costs
- Domestic transport and storage constraints
Historical patterns show how these factors interact. When inflation fell to 1.9% in September 2024, for instance, it coincided with cheaper rice and fuel, as discussed in our earlier analysis Inflation in the Philippines Hits a Four-Year Low at 1.9%, which serves as a reminder of how quickly supply-side gains can steady prices.
Today, improvements in agricultural diversity, an expanding renewable-energy mix, and better price-monitoring systems such as PSA’s OpenSTAT enhance transparency and response time. For households and investors, reading PSA releases alongside BSP policy notes offers a clear sense of purchasing-power trends and monetary direction, providing context that stays useful long after any single monthly figure fades.